Artificial
Opens Dec 25, 2026
Dec 25
Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.
- Budget
- $40.0M
- Opening forecast
- $3.0M–$8.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate Prestige drama opening against Christmas blockbusters; Challengers opened at $15M
- Needs to make (est.)
- $98.5M–$123M
About the film
Luca Guadagnino dramatizes the chaotic days when OpenAI's board fired Sam Altman (Andrew Garfield), and how he came back.
Show the math
Break-even
- Production budget
- $40.0M
- Marketing (estimated for a specialty distributor)
- $24.0M–$40.0M
- Total cost
- $64.0M–$80.0M
- Studio's share of each ticket dollar
- 45¢
- Later: home, streaming and TV
- +20¢
- Break-even worldwide
- $98.5M–$123M
Total cost ÷ 65¢ per box office dollar. That's 2.5–3.1× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 50% from the US and Canada, typical for a specialty distributor.
Projection
Before release, the projection takes the middle of its opening-weekend forecast ($5.5M) times 4.0×: 2.5× (typical for a wide release), raised for a Christmas release.
- Domestic finish
- ~$22.0M
- Worldwide finish
- ~$44.0M
Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 50%, until real international numbers come in.
Verdict: Bomb. How verdicts work