How the box office tracker works

Studios almost never publish what a movie really cost or earned, so every number here is an estimate built from publicly reported budgets and grosses. This page shows exactly how they're calculated.

Where the numbers come from

Budgets come from trade reporting. When outlets disagree, the tracker shows the range. Grosses are the publicly reported weekend figures: studio estimates on Sunday, replaced by actuals on Monday. International totals are reported less often than domestic ones, so they sometimes lag by a week or two.

What a ticket is worth to the studio

Theaters keep part of every ticket. The studio's share, called the rental, is roughly 50% in the US and Canada, 40% internationally and 25% in China. Each film's share is blended from where its money actually came from.

Later, home video, streaming and TV deals bring in more. After residuals and talent backend deals, the tracker counts that as 20% of the worldwide box office.

What it cost

The reported budget covers production only. Marketing is extra and rarely reported, so unless a trade outlet gives a figure, it's estimated at 60%–100% of the budget for a wide release, with a minimum, because a nationwide campaign costs money even for a cheap film. How much depends on who's releasing it:

Major studios (Disney, Warner Bros., Universal, Sony, Paramount, 20th Century, Lionsgate, Amazon MGM): at least $15M–$30M.
Specialty distributors (A24, Neon, Focus, Searchlight, Bleecker Street, Sony Pictures Classics): at least $8M–$20M.
Independents (Angel, Briarcliff, IFC, Fathom and the rest): at least $4M–$10M.

A limited release is estimated at 20%–50% of its budget.

Break-even

Break-even is the worldwide gross where the studio's share plus later revenue covers the production budget and marketing:

break-even = (budget + marketing) ÷ (studio's share + 20%)

For a typical wide release that lands around 2.5–3× the production budget, in line with the industry rule of thumb. The range on each film reflects the uncertainty in its budget and marketing. The studio's share and later revenue are estimates too, so the range is always at least 10% either side of its middle, even when the budget and marketing are both reported.

The projection

After one weekend, the domestic run is projected as a multiple of the opening: 2.5× for most films, 2.4× for horror, which opens big and falls fast, and 3.1× for family and animated films. Those multiples come from how the 2026 releases in this tracker actually finished. From the second weekend on, the projection follows the film's own weekend-to-weekend drops until the run fades out.

Holiday releases keep selling through the school break, so their multiple is raised: by 15% in early November, 35% at Thanksgiving, 35% in early December and 60% from mid-December (Wonka finished at 5.6× its opening, Wicked at 4.1×). Giant openings above $150M burn through demand faster and get half the boost (No Way Home finished at 3.1×).

Limited releases that open in a few theaters and expand don't fit a multiple, so each one carries a forecast of its full domestic run. That forecast stands until the film's theater count stops growing; then the real weekend drops take over.

The worldwide finish is the domestic finish divided by the share expected from the US and Canada. Once a film reports international numbers, it uses its own split. Before that it uses the typical share for its distributor (40% for the majors, 50% for specialty distributors and 70% for independents, whose international money is smaller and often never reported), or a ReelMatrix estimate for films that clearly differ, based on similar films. Godzilla, for example, earns far more overseas than an American indie.

Before a film opens, its early call uses the forecasts: the middle of the forecast domestic total where there is one, otherwise the opening-weekend forecast times the multiple above. Each film page names where the forecast came from.

How sure is each number?

Weekend grosses come from reported box office. Budgets and forecasts for upcoming films are often not public yet, so rather than leave them blank, the tracker fills them in and labels anything that isn't confirmed:

No label: Reported by a named outlet or the studio.
Unconfirmed: Circulating, for example on IMDb or in fan reporting, but not confirmed by a trade outlet or the studio.
ReelMatrix estimate: Our own estimate, where nothing has been reported at all. Treat it as a prediction.

A verdict built on a labeled figure says so. Labels come off as figures are confirmed, usually around a film's opening week.

Called it?

Every film gets an early call before it opens. On opening day that call is locked in, and it stays on the film's page next to the live verdict. Later budget corrections or changes to this model never rewrite it. When the run ends it's graded: a call is right if it lands in the same money group as the final verdict (made money, broke even or lost money), and exactly right if it's the same verdict. Calls started with films opening on or after October 29, 2026; earlier films are never graded, because no call was shown for them before they opened. The score is on Model stats.

The verdicts

Smash: Projected to earn at least double its break-even point.
Hit: Projected to clear the top of its break-even range.
On the bubble: Projected to land inside its break-even range.
Flop: Projected to fall short of its break-even range.
Bomb: Projected to earn less than half of what it needs.

Verdicts update as new weekends come in. Once a film leaves theaters, its verdict is final. Occasionally a verdict is set by hand, for example when a studio confirms a loss. Those films are marked on their page.

What "made money" means

Every verdict looks at the film as a whole: everything spent making and marketing it, whoever spent it, against everything it earns. When a finished film changes hands, for example when a studio sells it off or writes it off, the company that releases it can come out ahead even when the film as a whole lost money. And a verdict measures money, not how well a film was liked. So ours won't always match the headlines.

What it leaves out

Tax incentives, co-financing partners, merchandise and theme-park deals can all change a film's real result, and none of them are public. Treat every verdict as an informed estimate, not an accounting statement.