Bitter Christmas
Opens Nov 13, 2026
Nov 13
Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.
- Budget
- $10.0M–$13.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate
- Opening forecast
- $80K–$350K
- ReelMatrix estimate New York and Los Angeles opening, then expanding; Pain and Glory made $4.6M here
- Domestic total forecast
- $1.5M–$4.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate
- Needs to make (est.)
- $19.6M–$31.9M
- ReelMatrix estimate
About the film
Pedro Almodóvar's two-timeline drama: in 2004, Elsa spends a long December weekend with her friends; in 2026, a blocked filmmaker writes a script that turns out to be her story.
Show the math
Break-even
- Production budget (ReelMatrix estimate)
- $10.0M–$13.0M
- Marketing (estimated for a limited release)
- $2.0M–$6.5M
- Total cost
- $12.0M–$19.5M
- Studio's share of each ticket dollar
- 41¢
- Later: home, streaming and TV
- +20¢
- Break-even worldwide
- $19.6M–$31.9M
Total cost ÷ 61¢ per box office dollar. That's 2.0–2.5× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 12% from the US and Canada, a ReelMatrix estimate (Pain and Glory earned about 12% in the US and Canada).
Projection
Before release, the projection uses the middle of the forecast domestic total ($1.5M–$4.0M).
- Domestic finish
- ~$2.8M
- Worldwide finish
- ~$22.9M
Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 12%, until real international numbers come in.
Verdict: On the bubble. How verdicts work