Drummer Boy
Opens Nov 6, 2026
Nov 6
Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.
- Budget
- $8.0M–$18.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate
- Opening forecast
- $2.0M–$5.0M
- Box Office Theory, Oct 23
- Domestic total forecast
- $4.0M–$13.0M
- Needs to make (est.)
- $18.7M–$52.6M
- ReelMatrix estimate
About the film
A musical drama set at the start of the American Revolution: a young drummer boy, an enslaved woman and a divided family each fight for freedom in a world built to deny it. From for KING + COUNTRY's Smallbone brothers.
Show the math
Break-even
- Production budget (ReelMatrix estimate)
- $8.0M–$18.0M
- Marketing (estimated for an independent distributor)
- $4.8M–$18.0M
- Total cost
- $12.8M–$36.0M
- Studio's share of each ticket dollar
- 49¢
- Later: home, streaming and TV
- +20¢
- Break-even worldwide
- $18.7M–$52.6M
Total cost ÷ 69¢ per box office dollar. That's 2.3–2.9× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 85% from the US and Canada, a ReelMatrix estimate (Angel Studios releases earn most of their money in the US and Canada (Sound of Freedom 74%, Runner 81%)).
Projection
Before release, the projection uses the middle of the forecast domestic total ($4.0M–$13.0M).
- Domestic finish
- ~$8.5M
- Worldwide finish
- ~$10.0M
Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 85%, until real international numbers come in.
Verdict: Flop. How verdicts work