Flavia

Magenta Light Studios · PG-13 · 1h 32m

Opens Dec 4, 2026

Dec 4

Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.

Budget: $15.0M–$25.0M; ReelMatrix estimate
Opening forecast: $1.0M–$3.0M; ReelMatrix estimate Family release from a small distributor, already on Sky in the UK
Needs to make (est.): $35.8M–$74.6M; ReelMatrix estimate

About the film

In 1950s England, eleven-year-old chemistry whiz Flavia de Luce (Molly Belle Wright) sets out to solve a murder and clear her father's name (Martin Freeman). Based on Alan Bradley's mystery novels.

Watch the trailer

Show the math

Break-even

Production budget (ReelMatrix estimate): $15.0M–$25.0M
Marketing (estimated for an independent distributor): $9.0M–$25.0M
Total cost: $24.0M–$50.0M
Studio's share of each ticket dollar: 47¢
Later: home, streaming and TV: +20¢
Break-even worldwide: $35.8M–$74.6M

Total cost ÷ 67¢ per box office dollar. That's 2.4–3.0× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 70% from the US and Canada, typical for an independent distributor.

Projection

Before release, the projection takes the middle of its opening-weekend forecast ($2.0M) times 4.2×: 3.1× (typical for family), raised for a early December release.

Domestic finish: ~$8.4M
Worldwide finish: ~$12.0M

Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 70%, until real international numbers come in.

Verdict: Bomb. How verdicts work