Ghost Soldier
Opens Nov 11, 2026
Nov 11
Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.
- Budget
- $15.0M–$30.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate
- Opening forecast
- $4.0M–$9.0M
- Box Office Theory, Oct 23
- Domestic total forecast
- $10.0M–$26.0M
- Needs to make (est.)
- $46.9M–$93.8M
- ReelMatrix estimate
About the film
A recluse (Jim Caviezel) living off the grid reveals his past as a Special Forces soldier and weapons designer when a powerful foreign company tries to take his neighbors' land.
Show the math
Break-even
- Production budget (ReelMatrix estimate)
- $15.0M–$30.0M
- Marketing (estimated for a major studio)
- $15.0M–$30.0M
- Total cost
- $30.0M–$60.0M
- Studio's share of each ticket dollar
- 44¢
- Later: home, streaming and TV
- +20¢
- Break-even worldwide
- $46.9M–$93.8M
Total cost ÷ 64¢ per box office dollar. That's 3.1–3.1× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 40% from the US and Canada, typical for a major studio.
Projection
Before release, the projection uses the middle of the forecast domestic total ($10.0M–$26.0M).
- Domestic finish
- ~$18.0M
- Worldwide finish
- ~$45.0M
Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 40%, until real international numbers come in.
Verdict: Flop. How verdicts work