Mr. Irrelevant
Opens Dec 25, 2026
Dec 25
Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.
- Budget
- $40.0M–$60.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate
- Opening forecast
- $10.0M–$18.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate Star-led sports drama opening on Christmas
- Needs to make (est.)
- $94.1M–$176M
- ReelMatrix estimate
About the film
The true story of John Tuggle (David Corenswet), the very last pick of the 1983 NFL draft, who won over the New York Giants and coach Bill Parcells (Michael Shannon).
Show the math
Break-even
- Production budget (ReelMatrix estimate)
- $40.0M–$60.0M
- Marketing (estimated for a major studio)
- $24.0M–$60.0M
- Total cost
- $64.0M–$120M
- Studio's share of each ticket dollar
- 48¢
- Later: home, streaming and TV
- +20¢
- Break-even worldwide
- $94.1M–$176M
Total cost ÷ 68¢ per box office dollar. That's 2.4–2.9× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 80% from the US and Canada, a ReelMatrix estimate (American football dramas earn most of their money here (The Blind Side 83%)).
Projection
Before release, the projection takes the middle of its opening-weekend forecast ($14.0M) times 4.0×: 2.5× (typical for a wide release), raised for a Christmas release.
- Domestic finish
- ~$56.0M
- Worldwide finish
- ~$70.0M
Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 80%, until real international numbers come in.
Verdict: Flop. How verdicts work