Paper Tiger
Opens Nov 13, 2026
Nov 13
Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.
- Budget
- $15.0M
- Opening forecast
- $150K–$650K
- ReelMatrix estimate Limited opening, then expanding through awards season
- Domestic total forecast
- $6.0M–$15.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate
- Needs to make (est.)
- $27.7M–$34.6M
About the film
New York, 1986: a naive engineer (Adam Driver) goes into business with his ex-cop brother (Miles Teller), until one of them sees something he shouldn't and the Russian mob comes calling. From James Gray, with Scarlett Johansson.
Show the math
Break-even
- Production budget
- $15.0M
- Marketing (estimated for a limited release)
- $3.0M–$7.5M
- Total cost
- $18.0M–$22.5M
- Studio's share of each ticket dollar
- 45¢
- Later: home, streaming and TV
- +20¢
- Break-even worldwide
- $27.7M–$34.6M
Total cost ÷ 65¢ per box office dollar. That's 1.8–2.3× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 50% from the US and Canada, typical for a specialty distributor.
Projection
Before release, the projection uses the middle of the forecast domestic total ($6.0M–$15.0M).
- Domestic finish
- ~$10.5M
- Worldwide finish
- ~$21.0M
Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 50%, until real international numbers come in.
Verdict: Flop. How verdicts work