The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Lionsgate · PG-13 · 2h 30m

Opens Nov 20, 2026

Nov 20

Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.

Budget: $150M–$200M
Opening forecast: $65.0M–$84.0M; Box Office Theory, Oct 23
Needs to make (est.): $375M–$625M

About the film

Twenty-four years before Katniss, it's reaping day for the 50th Hunger Games, the Second Quarter Quell, and a young Haymitch Abernathy (Joseph Zada) is about to be chosen.

Watch the trailer

Show the math

Break-even

Production budget: $150M–$200M
Marketing (estimated for a major studio): $90.0M–$200M
Total cost: $240M–$400M
Studio's share of each ticket dollar: 44¢
Later: home, streaming and TV: +20¢
Break-even worldwide: $375M–$625M

Total cost ÷ 64¢ per box office dollar. That's 2.5–3.1× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 40% from the US and Canada, typical for a major studio.

Projection

Before release, the projection takes the middle of its opening-weekend forecast ($74.5M) times 3.4×: 2.5× (typical for a wide release), raised for a Thanksgiving release.

Domestic finish: ~$251M
Worldwide finish: ~$629M

Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 40%, until real international numbers come in.

Verdict: Hit. How verdicts work