Wild Horse Nine
Opens Nov 6, 2026
Nov 6
Opening day. Numbers start after its first weekend.
- Budget
- $25.0M–$35.0M
- ReelMatrix estimate
- Opening forecast
- $2.0M–$6.0M
- Box Office Theory, Oct 23
- Domestic total forecast
- $5.0M–$20.0M
- Needs to make (est.)
- $63.5M–$111M
- ReelMatrix estimate
About the film
Days before Chile's 1973 coup, two CIA agents (John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell) are sent to Easter Island by their boss (Steve Buscemi), where old baggage and two rebellious students throw the mission off course. From Martin McDonagh.
Show the math
Break-even
- Production budget (ReelMatrix estimate)
- $25.0M–$35.0M
- Marketing (estimated for a specialty distributor)
- $15.0M–$35.0M
- Total cost
- $40.0M–$70.0M
- Studio's share of each ticket dollar
- 43¢
- Later: home, streaming and TV
- +20¢
- Break-even worldwide
- $63.5M–$111M
Total cost ÷ 63¢ per box office dollar. That's 2.5–3.2× the budget. The studio's share blends 50¢ domestic, 40¢ international and 25¢ in China, weighted by this film's mix: 30% from the US and Canada, a ReelMatrix estimate (McDonagh's last two films earned 22–34% in the US and Canada).
Projection
Before release, the projection uses the middle of the forecast domestic total ($5.0M–$20.0M).
- Domestic finish
- ~$12.5M
- Worldwide finish
- ~$41.7M
Worldwide finish = domestic finish ÷ 30%, until real international numbers come in.
Verdict: Flop. How verdicts work